looking forward

This week, the Washington Post reported on the intelligence brief being prepared for the next occupant of the White House, whoever he may be. Its most salient point was that American power and influence is declining and will likely continue to do so in the face of an increasingly multipolar world. Like the British Empire after WWI, the United States is facing an existential crisis as it loses the identity it's held for generations.

America has been a superpower since the end of World War II and with the collapse of the USSR in 1991, ascended to the status of world hegemon. We maintain around 700 military bases in around 160 out of the 190 nations in the world, insuring the prevalence of our military forces in any relevant theater of operations and our ability to act unilaterally without much fear of conventional reprisal. Our military expenses far exceed the next most prolific spender (Russia) and no currently identified “Rogue State” can hope to afford more than a fraction of our defense budget. Additionally, our economic power has significant impact on the rest of the planet. The United States is the world’s largest importer and is home to dozens of major corporations that employ thousands of individuals internationally. Unlike the colonial empires of Europe, America projects its power not by territorial expansion but by economic expansion backed by overwhelming military strength.

This situation, however, seems to be at an end. The threats of the 21st century come from loose networks of groups operating below the nation-state level. As the Cold War taught us, even conflicts between nation-states are likely to be carried out via proxy wars instead of direct confrontation. The continuing rise of China and India as world powers, the resurgence of Russia, and the growing diplomatic and economic power of the European Union is changing the face of the geopolitical landscape. As the value of the US Dollar continues to fall, and the American economic slump worsens, even our economic clout has shrunk in the face of "energy powers" like Russia and Saudi Arabia.

Looking forward into this new world, one thing is clear. The problems of the 21st century are global problems: the challenges of international terrorism, climate crisis, hunger, and overpopulation can only be solved by cooperation between the growing number of world powers. In this light, perhaps America should be glad for strong partners on the world stage.